Analysis of China's Wind Power and Offshore Wind Development
I. National Strategy and Top-Level Design Charts the Course for Wind and Offshore Wind Development
At the 2025 UN Climate Summit, President Xi Jinping announced China's new round of Nationally Determined Contributions and proposed a strategic plan to strive for 3.6 billion kilowatts (3600 GW) of installed wind and solar capacity by 2035. Furthermore, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Commission for Financial and Economic Affairs emphasized the need to strengthen, refine, and expand marine industries, and to promote the standardized and orderly construction of offshore wind power. This series of top-level designs fully underscores the important strategic position of the offshore wind industry in China's energy transition, showcasing its broad development prospects and long-term stable policy certainty.
In October 2025, the "Wind Energy Beijing Declaration 2.0" proposed that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), China's annual new installed wind power capacity should be no less than 120 GW, including no less than 15 GW of new offshore wind annually. It is expected that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the scale of domestic wind power installation will reach new heights. It is projected that from 2025 to 2030, the average annual new installed capacity will be about 15 GW. By 2030, the total installed offshore wind capacity is expected to reach approximately 150 GW.
II. Regional Layout of Offshore Wind and the Trend Toward Deep-Sea Development
Among coastal provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions), Guangdong Province holds the top position in the future market. Analysis of medium- and long-term planned projects across provinces shows that the proportion of deep-sea (floating) projects is currently about 60%, with the majority located in Exclusive Economic Zone waters beyond the territorial sea baseline.
Taking Guangdong Province as an example, by 2030, projects in the Exclusive Economic Zone beyond the territorial sea baseline are expected to account for 66% of the capacity in the province's overall planned new offshore wind projects. After 2030, the vast majority of China's offshore wind projects will be situated in the Exclusive Economic Zone.
III. Trends in Offshore Wind Power Costs
The cost of offshore wind power in China continues to decline. The capital expenditure level for offshore wind in 2024 ranged from 9,000 to 12,500 CNY/kW. It is roughly estimated that for 2025, the unit project cost for near-shore offshore wind projects will be between 8,700 and 11,700 CNY/kW. By 2030, the unit project cost is expected to drop further to between 7,800 and 10,500 CNY/kW, with the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for near-shore projects declining to around 0.25 CNY/kWh.
Currently, the unit cost of floating offshore wind ranges from 40,000 to 50,000 CNY/kW. In the future, with technological advancements, scaled development, and the application of new floating foundations—including materials, new design methods, mooring systems, and standardized construction—rapid cost reduction is expected. By 2030, the cost may fall further to within 20,000 CNY/kW, gradually meeting the conditions for commercial development, with an LCOE reaching 0.4–0.45 CNY/kWh.
IV. Building a New Offshore Energy Ecosystem
4.1 Background and Core Orientation of Integrated Development
In recent years, the integrated development of "offshore wind +" has garnered increasing attention. The latest "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Integrated Development of New Energy" issued by the National Energy Administration in November clearly states that China's new energy development is shifting from a traditional, isolated, and decentralized model towards a new systematic, holistic, and synergistic development model. This transformation aims to break through the inherent boundaries between various energy subsystems, between new energy and related industries, and between production and consumption, thereby constructing a higher-level dynamic balance system and upgrading energy development from "local optimum" to "system optimum."
Against this backdrop, the "offshore wind +" integrated development model has become an important pathway to achieve this goal. By deeply integrating with Power-to-X (PtX) technology, marine ranching ("blue granary"), the hydrogen industry chain, and comprehensive energy islands, this model is creating an innovative offshore energy ecosystem.
4.2 Core Directions of Integrated Development
The core directions of offshore wind integration mainly include four aspects:
Firstly, the combination of offshore wind and Power-to-X (PtX) utilizes the abundant clean electricity from offshore wind for water electrolysis to produce hydrogen. This not only helps address wind curtailment issues but also provides low-carbon or even zero-carbon feedstocks for industries like chemicals and transportation.
Secondly, the integration of offshore wind with marine ranching/blue granaries. As nearshore aquaculture space becomes limited, deep-sea areas are becoming important carriers for the future blue economy. Offshore wind facilities can integrate intelligent monitoring, environmental regulation, and other functions without affecting power generation, creating composite platforms that combine "power generation - ecological restoration - fishery efficiency enhancement." Notably, the integration of offshore photovoltaics with marine ranching is also advancing simultaneously.
Thirdly, the integration of offshore wind with comprehensive energy island construction. The "energy island" concept refers to building centralized multi-functional energy hub platforms in deep-sea areas, capable of large-scale wind power aggregation, energy storage regulation, hydrogen conversion, and power transmission. These islands are not only key nodes for connecting offshore wind to the grid but also core infrastructure for realizing the coupling and conversion of multiple energy sources.
Finally, the deep integration of offshore wind with the green hydrogen industry chain. Currently, the cost of green hydrogen production remains relatively high. However, with the continuous decline in offshore wind LCOE and efficiency improvements in electrolyzers driven by technological progress, offshore wind-based hydrogen production is expected to enter the initial stage of commercialization around 2030.
4.3 Recommendations and Future Trends for Promoting Integrated Development
Looking ahead, the integrated development of offshore wind will exhibit trends such as the accelerated implementation of diverse application scenarios, significant improvements in digitalization and intelligence levels, and strengthening international cooperation. Therefore, coastal provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) should conduct comprehensive assessments on a project-by-project basis, considering local power supply and demand, offshore wind resources, sea area scale, construction conditions, and local energy structure. They should rationally select integration methods and consumption pathways, strengthen top-level design, coordinate the relationship between sea use, environmental protection, and industrial development, accelerate breakthroughs in key technologies, improve supporting policy systems, and promote the deepening and solid advancement of offshore wind integration.
V. Global Industry Chain Transformation and the International Development of China's Offshore Wind
5.1 Transformation of the Global Offshore Wind Industry Chain
The global offshore wind industry chain is at a critical juncture of transitioning from "scale expansion" to "high-quality development." Despite facing multiple challenges from macroeconomics, policies, and supply chains, its strategic value in energy security, climate goals, and industrial competitiveness is increasingly prominent. The next decade will be a key period for industry chain restructuring, requiring efforts to promote global supply chain collaboration and rational capacity layout, establish stable policy frameworks and risk-sharing mechanisms, strengthen technological innovation and cross-sector integration, and cultivate internationalized professional talent and service systems. Through multi-party collaboration, offshore wind is expected to become a core pillar industry for the global energy transition.
5.2 International Advantages and Development Pathways for China's Offshore Wind
Offshore wind is not only a crucial lever for achieving the "Dual Carbon" goals but also an important vehicle for the transformation, upgrading, and "going global" strategy of coastal cities. Coastal cities represented by Shantou, leveraging excellent port conditions, a complete manufacturing industry chain, and rich operation and maintenance experience, are becoming important bridgeheads for China's offshore wind industry to go global.
By actively participating in the "Belt and Road" Initiative and promoting the international export of technology, equipment, standards, and services, China's offshore wind industry is building new competitive advantages globally. Meanwhile, Chinese suppliers, beyond meeting domestic demand, are encountering opportunities in overseas markets. With a stable supply chain, China possesses advantages not only in cost but also in reliable delivery capabilities. Chinese wind power equipment manufacturers can offer flexible cooperation models, such as joint venture production and integrated solutions combining complete turbines with EPC (Engineering, Procurement, and Construction).
VI. Future Development Measures and Outlook
To fully unleash the development potential of offshore wind in the future, government regulators and all sectors of the industry need to deepen collaboration. Through multi-dimensional measures such as optimizing the policy framework system, improving market-oriented bidding mechanisms, building a globalized supply chain network, increasing investment in cutting-edge technology R&D, and systematically advancing talent cultivation, they can jointly address development bottlenecks.
Only by constructing a healthy ecosystem through government-enterprise collaboration and international cooperation can offshore wind truly realize its strategic value in the global energy system. It will not only provide reliable support for achieving carbon neutrality goals but also inject strong momentum into global energy security and sustainable economic development. Under the leadership of coastal cities like Shantou, China's offshore wind industry will inevitably integrate into the global energy governance system with a more open stance, making irreplaceable contributions to building a clean, safe, and sustainable energy future for humanity, while also opening up new broad spaces for the high-quality development and internationalization process of China's coastal cities.
This article is reprinted from the WeChat public account: Pusk
